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Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers suggests it’s ‘more likely than not that we will have a recession within the next two years’

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers speaks at meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Washington, in 2015.

NICHOLAS KAMM/AFP via Getty Images

  • Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said it’s “likely” that the country will see a recession.
  • “I think there’s certainly a risk of recession in the next year,” he told CNN on Sunday.
  • His opinion opposes Janet Yellen, who said last week nothing is pointing to a recession.

Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summer suggested that “it’s more than likely” the country will grapple with a recession “within the next two years.”

“I think when inflation is as high as it is right now, and unemployment is as low as it is right now, it’s almost always been followed within two years… by recession,” Summers said on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. 

“I look at what’s happening in the stock and bond markets. I look at where consumer sentiment is,” he added. “I think there’s certainly a risk of recession in the next year. And I think, given where we have gotten to, it’s more likely than not that we will have a recession within the next two years.”

—CNN (@CNN) June 12, 2022

His was responding to host Dana Bash’s question about current US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s recent remarks, where she eased the fears of a possible recession, saying “there’s nothing to suggest that a recession is in the works.”

“Consumer spending is very strong, investment spending is solid,” she said at the New York Times Dealbook conference in Washington DC last week, responding to concerns tweeted by hip hop star Cardi B.

During the interview, Summers added that a recession is something the US can take on. 

“That is something we can manage. We have had them for the whole history of the country,” Summers said. “We need to be prepared and to respond quickly if and when it happens.”

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