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A potential US recession will be mild and more in line with ‘light rain’ as opposed to a hurricane, says Pimco strategist

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  • A potential US recession won’t be as severe as many fear, a Pimco strategist told Bloomberg TV.

  • Anthony Crescenzi said Friday that while a recession looms, it’s likely to resemble a ‘light rain.’
  • The macroeconomic picture looks “pretty stable,” and as investors gauge the risk of a recession, “It’s seeming like it’s likely to be mild,” he said. 

A looming US recession may not be as severe as Wall Street fears, according to Anthony Crescenzi, executive vice president, market strategist, and generalist portfolio manager at Pimco.

Last month, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon used a weather analogy when he warned that an economic hurricane is on the horizon, adding that the potential for an imminent recession requires preparation by banks.

But on Bloomberg TV Friday, Crescenzi said, “This idea of a hurricane, for example, is probably the wrong idea. Probably the right idea is a light rain.”

To be sure, that light rain will likely be steady as there is little chance for more monetary and fiscal stimulus to rev up growth, he added. But overall, the macroeconomic picture looks “pretty stable,” and as investors gauge the risk of a recession, “It’s seeming like it’s likely to be mild,” he said. 

The comments come as recession calls have tightened their grip on markets. The latest US inflation reading, which showed consumer prices soared 9.1%, has prompted markets to price in a 100% risk of a recession hitting the economy before the end of the year, according to George Saravelos, global head of currency research at Deutsche Bank.

Crescenzi added that there’s significant upside once a recession passes, pointing to strong household savings and low unemployment. 

“Money will flow to entrepreneurs, innovators, inventors and credit worthy borrowers in a time of stress, so there’s lots of reason to think we can come out of this pretty good,” he said. 

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